Digressions in Elementary Probability (Record no. 64478)
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| fixed length control field | 05328nam a22005415i 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER | |
| control field | 978-3-031-70051-4 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER | |
| control field | DE-He213 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20251030113245.0 |
| 007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | cr nn 008mamaa |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | 241025s2024 sz | s |||| 0|eng d |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER | |
| International Standard Book Number | 9783031700514 |
| -- | 978-3-031-70051-4 |
| 024 7# - OTHER STANDARD IDENTIFIER | |
| Standard number or code | 10.1007/978-3-031-70051-4 |
| Source of number or code | doi |
| 050 #4 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER | |
| Classification number | HA1-4737 |
| 072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE | |
| Subject category code | JHBC |
| Source | bicssc |
| 072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE | |
| Subject category code | SOC027000 |
| Source | bisacsh |
| 072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE | |
| Subject category code | JHBC |
| Source | thema |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Beltrami, Edward. |
| Relator term | author. |
| Relator code | aut |
| -- | http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut |
| 9 (RLIN) | 86582 |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Digressions in Elementary Probability |
| Medium | [electronic resource] : |
| Remainder of title | The Unexpected in Medicine, Sports, and Society / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc. | by Edward Beltrami. |
| 250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT | |
| Edition statement | 1st ed. 2024. |
| 264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE | |
| Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture | Cham : |
| Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer | Springer Nature Switzerland : |
| -- | Imprint: Springer, |
| Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice | 2024. |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION | |
| Extent | X, 121 p. 19 illus. |
| Other physical details | online resource. |
| 336 ## - CONTENT TYPE | |
| Content type term | text |
| Content type code | txt |
| Source | rdacontent |
| 337 ## - MEDIA TYPE | |
| Media type term | computer |
| Media type code | c |
| Source | rdamedia |
| 338 ## - CARRIER TYPE | |
| Carrier type term | online resource |
| Carrier type code | cr |
| Source | rdacarrier |
| 347 ## - DIGITAL FILE CHARACTERISTICS | |
| File type | text file |
| Encoding format | |
| Source | rda |
| 490 1# - SERIES STATEMENT | |
| Series statement | Quantitative Methods in the Humanities and Social Sciences, |
| International Standard Serial Number | 2199-0964 |
| 505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE | |
| Formatted contents note | Success Runs in Bernoulli Trials -- Chapter 2. The Remarkable Streak of Joe Di Maggio -- Chapter 3. Inherited, Not Acquired -- Chapter 4. A Subtle Bias -- Chapter 5. Addendum : Conditional Expectation -- Chapter 6. Hot Hands in Basketball -- Chapter 7. Restricted Choice -- Chapter 8. Another Conundrum : What Does Crowd Size at Wimbledon’s Tennis Match Tell us About Baseball Batting Averages?- Chapter 9. Cancer Clusters -- Chapter 10. Medical Mis-Readings -- Chapter 11. The Wrong Conclusion -- Chapter 12. Clinical Trials -- Chapter 13. Margin of Error -- Chapter 14. What Are the Odds of That?- Chapter 15. Turing’s Evidence -- Chapter 16. Bell’s Inequality -- Chapter 17. The Paradox of Random Arrivals -- Chapter 18. The Inverse Square Root Law -- Chapter 19. Runs, Again -- Chapter 20. Addendum : Tutorial on Elementary Probability. |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | This book is about the interplay between chance and order, but limited to mostly binary events, such as success/failure as they occur in a diversity of interesting applications. The goal is to entertain and instruct with topics that range from unexpected encounters with chance in everyday experiences, to significant “must know” insights regarding human health and other concerns in the social sciences. The first section provides the tools for being able to discuss random sequences with hints at what is to follow. This is followed by another surprising and, to some extent, bizarre result known as Stein’s Paradox, which is applied to baseball. The troublesome topic of disease clusters, namely to decide whether the clumping of events is due to chance or some environmental cause, is treated using both the Poisson and normal approximations to the binomial distribution and this leads naturally into a discussion of the base rate fallacy and a case study of hospital performance. Next, another medical case study this time concerning some tricky questions about the effectiveness of colonoscopy and other medical interventions. A brief discussion of the mathematics of clinical trials, follows. Then, the book examines the error in random sampling, when polling for candidate preference with specific current examples. The essential tool here is covariance of random variables. The author follows this with a treatment of the spooky quality of coincidence using appropriate mathematical tools. After this, code breaking at Bletchley Park using Baye’s theorem. It returns to Poisson events to discuss another unexpected result, followed by the use of spatial Poisson events in the delivery of emergency response services. Finally, an account of fluctuations that occur in a run of Bernoulli trials as a bookend to the very first section of the book. The probability theory involved is elementary using the binomial theorem and its extensions to Poisson and normal events in addition to conditional probability and covariance. The author provides an optional brief tutorial at the end, that covers the basic ideas in probability and statistics needed in the main text. Besides a list of references, several codes written in Matlab that were used to illustrate various topics in the text, as well as to support several figures that appear throughout, are provided. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | |
| General subdivision | Statistical methods. |
| 9 (RLIN) | 75236 |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | |
| 9 (RLIN) | 65982 |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | |
| 650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | |
| 9 (RLIN) | 75237 |
| 650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | |
| 9 (RLIN) | 79667 |
| 650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | |
| 710 2# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME | |
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element | SpringerLink (Online service) |
| 773 0# - HOST ITEM ENTRY | |
| Title | Springer Nature eBook |
| 776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY | |
| Relationship information | Printed edition: |
| International Standard Book Number | 9783031700507 |
| 776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY | |
| Relationship information | Printed edition: |
| International Standard Book Number | 9783031700521 |
| 776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY | |
| Relationship information | Printed edition: |
| International Standard Book Number | 9783031700538 |
| 830 #0 - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--UNIFORM TITLE | |
| Uniform title | Quantitative Methods in the Humanities and Social Sciences, |
| International Standard Serial Number | 2199-0964 |
| 9 (RLIN) | 75238 |
| 856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-70051-4">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-70051-4</a> |
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