03478nam a22006135i 4500 978-3-031-48766-8 DE-He213 20251030111449.0 cr nn 008mamaa 240228s2024 sz | s |||| 0|eng d 9783031487668 978-3-031-48766-8 10.1007/978-3-031-48766-8 doi JZ5587-6009 JPS bicssc POL012000 bisacsh JPS thema Pherson, Randolph H. author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 71937 Clear Thinking [electronic resource] : Structured Analytic Techniques and Strategic Foresight Analysis for Decisionmakers / by Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad. 1st ed. 2024. Cham : Springer Nature Switzerland : Imprint: Springer, 2024. XIX, 243 p. 132 illus., 36 illus. in color. online resource. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file PDF rda Professional Practice in Governance and Public Organizations, 2731-9784 Chapter 1. Setting the Stage -- Chapter 2. Understanding How We Think: System I and System 2 -- Chapter 3. Conceptualizing Your Topic -- Chapter 4. Blackout In Berlin! -- Chapter 5. Terror in Stockholm -- Chapter 6. Conflict or Cooperation in the Arctic? -- Chapter 7. Optimizing the Impact of Your Product -- Chapter 8. Outlook. This book enables analysts in government and the private sector as well as policy advisors and decision makers to assess global risks and opportunities systematically, make well-founded and informed decisions, and anticipate the unanticipated. The authors illuminate the basics of intuitive and analytical thinking and how structured techniques can mitigate the impact of cognitive biases, misapplied heuristics, and intuitive traps. Three case studies illustrate how to apply over 30 Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) with step-by-step instructions. The final chapter focuses on how to optimize the impact of your analytic product, be it a paper, briefing, or digital display. Security, International. 58210 Political science. 58714 Cognitive psychology. Political leadership. World politics. 58105 International Security Studies. 69560 Governance and Government. Cognitive Psychology. Political Leadership. Political History. 67817 Donner, Ole. author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 71938 Gnad, Oliver. author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 71939 SpringerLink (Online service) Springer Nature eBook Printed edition: 9783031487651 Printed edition: 9783031487675 Printed edition: 9783031487682 Professional Practice in Governance and Public Organizations, 2731-9784 71940 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48766-8 ZDB-2-BSP ZDB-2-SXBP 57950 57950