03247nam a22005655i 4500001001800000003000900018005001700027007001500044008004100059020003700100024003500137050001600172072001600188072002300204072001500227100008900242245018000331250001800511264006900529300006600598336002600664337002600690338003600716347002400752490007700776505033400853520068601187650003601873650003001909650002601939650002601965650002701991650004302018650003102061650002602092650002602118650003002144700008102174700008202255710003402337773002602371776003602397776003602433776003602469830008402505856004602589912001402635912001502649999001702664978-3-031-48766-8DE-He21320251030111449.0cr nn 008mamaa240228s2024    sz |    s    |||| 0|eng d  a97830314876689978-3-031-48766-87 a10.1007/978-3-031-48766-82doi 4aJZ5587-6009 7aJPS2bicssc 7aPOL0120002bisacsh 7aJPS2thema1 aPherson, Randolph H.eauthor.4aut4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut97193710aClear Thinkingh[electronic resource] :bStructured Analytic Techniques and Strategic Foresight Analysis for Decisionmakers /cby Randolph H. Pherson, Ole Donner, Oliver Gnad.  a1st ed. 2024. 1aCham :bSpringer Nature Switzerland :bImprint: Springer,c2024.  aXIX, 243 p. 132 illus., 36 illus. in color.bonline resource.  atextbtxt2rdacontent  acomputerbc2rdamedia  aonline resourcebcr2rdacarrier  atext filebPDF2rda1 aProfessional Practice in Governance and Public Organizations,x2731-97840 aChapter 1. Setting the Stage -- Chapter 2. Understanding How We Think: System I and System 2 -- Chapter 3. Conceptualizing Your Topic -- Chapter 4. Blackout In Berlin! -- Chapter 5. Terror in Stockholm -- Chapter 6. Conflict or Cooperation in the Arctic? -- Chapter 7. Optimizing the Impact of Your Product -- Chapter 8. Outlook.  aThis book enables analysts in government and the private sector as well as policy advisors and decision makers to assess global risks and opportunities systematically, make well-founded and informed decisions, and anticipate the unanticipated. The authors illuminate the basics of intuitive and analytical thinking and how structured techniques can mitigate the impact of cognitive biases, misapplied heuristics, and intuitive traps. Three case studies illustrate how to apply over 30 Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) with step-by-step instructions. The final chapter focuses on how to optimize the impact of your analytic product, be it a paper, briefing, or digital display. 0aSecurity, International.958210 0aPolitical science.958714 0aCognitive psychology. 0aPolitical leadership. 0aWorld politics.95810514aInternational Security Studies.96956024aGovernance and Government.24aCognitive Psychology.24aPolitical Leadership.24aPolitical History.9678171 aDonner, Ole.eauthor.4aut4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut9719381 aGnad, Oliver.eauthor.4aut4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut9719392 aSpringerLink (Online service)0 tSpringer Nature eBook08iPrinted edition:z978303148765108iPrinted edition:z978303148767508iPrinted edition:z9783031487682 0aProfessional Practice in Governance and Public Organizations,x2731-978497194040uhttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48766-8  aZDB-2-BSP  aZDB-2-SXBP  c57950d57950