03833nam a22005175i 4500 978-3-031-66552-3 DE-He213 20251030113122.0 cr nn 008mamaa 241002s2024 sz | s |||| 0|eng d 9783031665523 978-3-031-66552-3 10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3 doi K201-487 K140-165 LAB bicssc LAW000000 bisacsh LAB thema Clermont, Kevin M. author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 85474 A General Theory of Evidence and Proof [electronic resource] : Forming Beliefs in Truth / by Kevin M. Clermont. 1st ed. 2024. Cham : Springer International Publishing : Imprint: Springer, 2024. VII, 234 p. 19 illus., 8 illus. in color. online resource. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file PDF rda Law and Philosophy Library, 2215-0315 ; 148 Introduction -- Kinds of Uncertainty -- Bivalent Probabilities -- Multivalent Beliefs -- Factfinding Deconstructed Logically -- Generalizing Beyond Factfinding -- Conclusion. This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likelihood. But such talk is a misleading misconception. The reason is that traditional probability fails to distinguish epistemic uncertainty from aleatory uncertainty. This conflation leads to mistakes such as invoking probability’s product rules, which calculate a conjunction’s likelihood as being low. From there, the theorists have argued that in a myriad of ways, the law violates the probability calculus unforgivably. Today, other theorists are newly realizing that in large part the law does not deal in probability. They now can defend the way that law has found facts since long before the invention of probability and on to the present. They are also reevaluating such intuitive practices as those that humans use in daily life to combine inferences upon inferences. A hotly contested literature has emerged. In a significant, comprehensive, and original contribution, this book develops a theoretical justification for the intuitive approaches that humans deploy across a broad range of decisionmaking. Instead of probability, the book focuses on degrees of belief that estimate, given the state of the evidence, how far a proposition has been fully proven. Instead of combining findings by the rules of probability, the book uses the rules of multivalent logic. The aim is to illuminate decisionmaking outside statistical analysis, showing that our ancient wisdom is in fact theoretically solid. The target is everyone interested in improving decisionmaking. Law Philosophy. 67596 Law History. 67597 Theories of Law, Philosophy of Law, Legal History. 67600 SpringerLink (Online service) Springer Nature eBook Printed edition: 9783031665516 Printed edition: 9783031665530 Printed edition: 9783031665547 Law and Philosophy Library, 2215-0315 ; 148 72252 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66552-3 ZDB-2-LCR ZDB-2-SXLC 63934 63934