05558nam a22006495i 4500 978-3-031-66115-0 DE-He213 20251030113244.0 cr nn 008mamaa 241025s2024 sz | s |||| 0|eng d 9783031661150 978-3-031-66115-0 10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0 doi T57.6-.97 KJT bicssc KJMD bicssc BUS049000 bisacsh KJT thema KJMD thema Garvey, Bruce. author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 86562 Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence [electronic resource] : A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond / by Bruce Garvey, Adam D. M. Svendsen. 1st ed. 2024. Cham : Springer Nature Switzerland : Imprint: Springer, 2024. XXXII, 340 p. 69 illus., 58 illus. in color. online resource. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file PDF rda Management for Professionals, 2192-810X Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis -- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods -- Examining the Landscape of Unauthorised Cyber Access (with reference to POSTnote #684) -- Intelligence Engineering-led set-up of generic Strategic Options Analysis Problem to Solution Spaces: Cyber example demonstration -- More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via ‘Estimative/Probabilistic Language’ -- Estimative/Probabilistic Language - Part II: Expanding the Range of Scenario Options -- Scoping ‘Digital Twins’ in intelligence & strategic foresight projects -- Generative-AI Pilot for Problem Spaces: Can ChatGPT help develop Scenarios? -- An Outline for an Interrogative/Prompt Library to help improve output quality from Generative-AI Datasets -- Prompt-engineering testing ChatGPT4 & Bard for assessing Generative-AI efficacy to support decision-making -- Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios? -- Realising Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) - Advancing an Intelligence-derived Foresight Framework -- The Role of the Scenario and its Reassessment -- Advancing a New Methodological Process -- Process implications – Current software enhancements, including increasing levels of AI. This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ‘(un)certainty’ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today’s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ‘Red Teaming’. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ‘Intelligence Engineering’ (IE) and, secondly, ‘Strategic Options Analysis’ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities. The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it. Operations research. 57943 Artificial intelligence. 58441 Knowledge management. Business information services. Technological innovations. 59244 Production management. 67141 Operations Research and Decision Theory. 67143 Artificial Intelligence. 58441 Knowledge Management. IT in Business. Innovation and Technology Management. 66187 Operations Management. 67304 Svendsen, Adam D. M. author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 86563 SpringerLink (Online service) Springer Nature eBook Printed edition: 9783031661143 Printed edition: 9783031661167 Printed edition: 9783031661174 Management for Professionals, 2192-810X 68226 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0 ZDB-2-BUM ZDB-2-SXBM 64467 64467