03251nam a22003854u 4500 10.1002/9781394319060 Wiley 20251030120310.0 cr nn 008mam|a 241122t2024||||xxu fs| |0|| 0|eng|| 9781394319060 electronic 10.1002/9781394319060 doi eng Krzysztofowicz, Roman aut 91722 Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions [electronic resource] Roman Krzysztofowicz 1 Wiley 2024 Wiley 2024 576pp.; text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file rdaft PDF Account for uncertainties and optimize decision-making with this thorough exposition Decision theory is a body of thought and research seeking to apply a mathematical-logical framework to assessing probability and optimizing decision-making. It has developed robust tools for addressing all major challenges to decision making. Yet the number of variables and uncertainties affecting each decision outcome, many of them beyond the decider's control, mean that decision-making is far from a 'solved problem'. The tools created by decision theory remain to be refined and applied to decisions in which uncertainties are prominent. Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions introduces a theoretically-grounded methodology for optimizing decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Beginning with an overview of the basic elements of probability theory and methods for modeling continuous variates, it proceeds to survey the mathematics of both continuous and discrete models, supporting each with key examples. The result is a crucial window into the complex but enormously rewarding world of decision theory. Readers of Probablistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions will also find: Extended case studies supported with real-world data Mini-projects running through multiple chapters to illustrate different stages of the decision-making process End of chapter exercises designed to facilitate student learning Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions is ideal for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the sciences and engineering, as well as predictive analytics and decision analytics professionals. Systems Engineering & Management Engineering Technology Management 91588 Applied Mathematics in Engineering 91554 Probabilistic reasoning; statistical estimation; judgmental assessment; rational decision-making; discrete modeling; continuous modeling; decision theory; mathematical-logical analysis; uncertainty; discrete-event systems; decision analysis Printed edition: 9781394221868 https://doi.org/10.1002/9781394319060 Wiley Online Library https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/showBook?doi=10.1002%2F9781394319060 Wiley Online Library Cover Image https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/15d0384b-ed29-4678-b573-89a4378d62b4/9781394319060.cover.gif Wiley Online Library 67058 67058